A quartet of clubs come into match-week 30 locked on 32 points in the Saudi Professional League’s and only three of them can survive this tense final day.
Al Adalah and Al Hazem have already dropped into Prince Mohammad bin Salman League. Damac, Al Fayha, fallen King’s Cup holders Al Taawoun and Jeddah heavyweights Al Ittihad – two-time AFC Champions League-kings who have not been demoted during 92 years of existence – are battling to avoid repeating their fates.
The tightest of relegation scraps is close to being decided in the Kingdom. Here, we pick apart the contenders and predict who will suffer a pained Wednesday:
THE SITUATION
Margins couldn’t be tighter at the bottom when the Middle East’s premier club competition reaches its, elongated, conclusion in midweek.
Damac’s inferior goal difference of -16 has ensured they come into the deciding round in the dreaded 14th place, while Ittihad are in 11th because their -1 is the best between the foursome. The former’s fate, however, is anything but sealed ahead of welcoming of a 10th-placed Al Fateh whose safety is assured on 33 points.
Head-to-head records (1st points, 2nd goal difference) take precedence in Saudi’s top flight, yet they only are enforced once all matches between the teams in question are played. This is where 13th-placed Fayha’s hosting of 12th-placed Taawoun provides a potential curve ball.
Elsewhere, 11th-placed Ittihad travel to rock-bottom, and long-relegated, Al Adalah.
STATE OF PLAY
11th) Al Ittihad
Wilfried Bony scores a penalty against Al Nassr (EPA).
Head-to-head records: Al Ittihad 3-1 Al Taawoun, Al Taawoun 1-2 Al Ittihad; Al Ittihad 4-1 Al Fayha, Al Fayha 4-1 Al Ittihad; Al Ittihad 1-2 Damac, Damac 2-1 Al Ittihad
Goal difference: -1
Goals scored: 40
For the second-successive season, an uncomfortable ending to a miserable campaign is at hand for Ittihad.
There are, though, multitude positive signs the worst will be averted.
Highly rated ex-Corinthians tactician Fabio Carille’s ability to inject calm among his troops has been apparent during a restart that began with twin defeats and has continued along a five-match unbeaten run. This mentality has been, especially, notable in the preceding two run-outs which required a comeback with 10 men to draw 1-1 at close-rivals Fateh and ex-Manchester City and Ivory Coast striker Wilfried Bony serenely converting a penalty to earn the same scoreline versus dethroned champions Al Nassr.
Key forward Romarinho’s removal in the final moments last Friday with a muscle strain caused concern. But their 15-goal top scorer, 11 ahead of any colleague, is reported by Arriyadiyah to be in business.
Adalah held them to a goalless draw in January, but this was under Henk ten Cate. The promoted side’s first taste of SPL action is, currently, ending amid a run of one win in seven matches and 19 goals conceded in this time.
This is a golden opportunity for Ittihad. They cannot afford to waste it.
Prediction: Safe.
12th) Al Taawoun
Heldon (l) had begun the season brightly for Al Taawoun (EPA).
Head-to-head records: Al Taawoun 1-2 Al Ittihad, Al Ittihad 3-1 Al Taawoun; Al Taawoun v Al Fayha (Wednesday, 21:35), Al Fayha 2-2 Al Taawoun; Al Taawoun 0-2 Damac, Damac 1-2 Al Taawoun
Goal difference: -8
Goals scored: 32
Taawoun have found themselves within a living nightmare.
Last term’s third-placed finishers, and King’s Cup holders, began last month’s restart in sixth. A horror run, however, of seven-successive defeats has followed.
Its unprecedented nature has put them at risk of falling into the bottom three for the first time since match-week two in 2016/17. Some collapse for a side poised to compete in the 2020 AFC Champions League’s restart later this month.
The latest, a 1-0 reversal at Fateh, was suffered under Saudi debutant caretaker Abdullah Assiri after last month’s dismissal of Vitor Campelos. An emergency call has since been answered by Al Jabalain’s Filipe Gouveia, a man known well to Pedro Emanuel who led them to historic successes a year prior.
Reintegration of Portuguese veteran centre-back Ricardo Machado has done nothing to boost a creaking defence without a clean sheet since the cessation. A rancorous summer fallout with key Cameroon centre forward Leandre Tawamba – a scorer of 21 SPL goals in 2018/19 – during lockdown has witnessed a paltry three goals notched without him during this horror spell.
Fayha will fancy their chances on Wednesday. Defeat there could cause inferior head-to-head records with Ittihad and Damac to come into play, regardless of their results.
Taawoun’s dire situation could be about to get even bleaker.
Prediction: Relegated.
13th) Al Fayha
Samuel Owusu (l) has impressed for Al Fayha (EPA).
Head-to-head records: Al Fayha 4-1 Al Ittihad, Al Ittihad 4-1 Al Fayha; Al Fayha 2-2 Al Taawoun, Al Taawoun v Al Fayha (Wednesday, 21:35); Al Fayha 0-0 Damac, Damac 2-1 Al Fayha
Goal difference: -9
Goals scored: 34
A relegation shootout between sinking Taawoun and misfiring Fayha should provide the greatest drama on deciding day.
Current conditions, slightly, favour the former. Their eight-match winless run was snapped last-time out versus Adalah, Samuel Owusu turning on the afterburners then hitting the brakes to calmly seal a 2-0 triumph.
It is the exuberance of the Ghana winger and control of ex-Chile playmaker Carlos Villanueva – about to fulfil the last fixture in an 11-year stint in the region – that provide reasons for optimism. This is needed for a club which failed to recover from serious mid-season injury to the latter’s compatriot, Ronnie Fernandez.
They cannot, now, be complacent. A 90th-minute equaliser was required in January’s reverse fixture versus Taawoun, while they’ve won just one of their last nine away SPL games.
A draw against Taawoun might not be enough, because of their inferior goal difference. An emphasis is required to play on the front foot and wrestle control of their own fate.
The, seemingly rejuvenating, recent call to ditch Portuguese boss Jorge Simao and bring in Saudi caretaker Yousef Alghadeer might have been made at just the right time.
Prediction: Safe – but it will be tight.
14th) Damac
Emilio Zelaya of Damac celebrates his goal against Ettifaq (EPA).
Head-to-head records: Damac 2-1 Al Ittihad, Al Ittihad 1-2 Damac; Damac 1-2 Al Taawoun, Al Taawoun 0-2 Damac; Damac 2-1 Al Fayha, Al Fayha 0-0 Damac
Goal difference: -16
Goals scored: 33
Damac represent a team transformed.
Their return of 14 points in seven post-lockdown matches is only bettered by champions Al Hilal and usurped holders Al Nassr. This rally has turned Noureddine Zekri’s troops from relegation certainties into the form team bidding for a last-gasp survival act.
January’s addition of Argentine centre forward Emilio Zelaya has been key to this turnaround. The 33-year-old has 11 goals in 15 SPL run-outs, with four of these coming in his last three games.
Zelaya’s relentless streak must continue on Wednesday. Fateh have nothing to play for, now they are mathematically safe, although they’ve only been beaten once in their last five away matches.
It took Damac 37 years to earn their SPL return for 2019/20. They show no signs of giving up this exalted status.
Prediction: Safe.
